Each window runs exactly 10 years starting March 1. Walk-forward simulation — no look-ahead bias. Benchmark: QQQ buy-and-hold. Initial capital $100,000.
| Window (10 years) | Total Return | CAGR | QQQ Return | QQQ CAGR | Alpha (total) | Max DD | QQQ Max DD | Final $ | QQQ Final $ | Sharpe | Win Rate | Avg Win | Avg Loss | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006-03-01 → 2016-03-01 | +187.3% | +11.1% | +175.9% | +10.7% | +11.4% | -34.3% | -53.4% | $287,346 | $275,951 | 0.54 | 58.3% | +13.9% | -10.7% | 84 |
| 2007-03-01 → 2017-03-01 | +254.2% | +13.5% | +233.8% | +12.8% | +20.4% | -33.2% | -53.4% | $354,168 | $333,803 | 0.62 | 56.6% | +14.7% | -9.5% | 83 |
| 2008-03-01 → 2018-03-01 | +403.1% | +17.6% | +324.8% | +15.6% | +78.3% | -33.2% | -49.4% | $503,131 | $424,798 | 0.77 | 59.8% | +14.8% | -9.2% | 82 |
| 2009-03-01 → 2019-03-01 | +530.9% | +20.2% | +624.9% | +21.9% | -94.0% | -33.2% | -22.8% | $630,932 | $724,884 | 0.87 | 61.7% | +14.8% | -8.6% | 81 |
| 2010-03-01 → 2020-03-01 | +723.6% | +23.5% | +403.2% | +17.5% | +320.4% | -33.2% | -22.8% | $823,555 | $503,204 | 0.96 | 62.2% | +15.6% | -8.5% | 82 |
| 2011-03-01 → 2021-03-01 | +1,157.5% | +28.8% | +529.9% | +20.2% | +627.6% | -33.2% | -28.6% | $1,257,460 | $629,856 | 1.03 | 60.7% | +18.4% | -8.2% | 84 |
| 2012-03-01 → 2022-03-01 | +1,091.3% | +28.1% | +479.4% | +19.2% | +611.9% | -33.2% | -28.6% | $1,191,305 | $579,347 | 1.01 | 64.0% | +17.3% | -9.5% | 86 |
| 2013-03-01 → 2023-03-01 | +1,134.7% | +28.6% | +373.6% | +16.8% | +761.2% | -33.2% | -35.1% | $1,234,743 | $473,593 | 1.02 | 59.5% | +19.0% | -8.4% | 84 |
| 2014-03-01 → 2024-03-01 | +839.8% | +25.1% | +439.8% | +18.4% | +400.1% | -31.9% | -35.1% | $939,805 | $539,746 | 0.94 | 60.5% | +16.9% | -9.1% | 86 |
| 2015-03-01 → 2025-03-01 | +1,693.7% | +33.5% | +402.0% | +17.5% | +1,291.6% | -31.1% | -35.1% | $1,793,652 | $502,020 | 1.08 | 60.9% | +18.9% | -8.5% | 87 |
| 2016-03-01 → 2026-03-01 ★ | +3,248.9% | +42.1% | +517.2% | +20.0% | +2,731.8% | -31.1% | -35.1% | $3,348,948 | $617,197 | 1.23 | 64.4% | +20.4% | -8.9% | 87 |
| Window | NQ100 CAGR | SP500 CAGR | NQ100 Final $ | SP500 Final $ | NQ100 Max DD | SP500 Max DD | NQ100 Sharpe | SP500 Sharpe | Better Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006→2016 | +11.1% | +16.6% | $287,346 | $464,939 | -34.3% | -23.8% | 0.54 | 0.90 | S&P 500 |
| 2007→2017 | +13.5% | +17.5% | $354,168 | $503,018 | -33.2% | -23.8% | 0.62 | 0.95 | S&P 500 |
| 2008→2018 | +17.6% | +18.1% | $503,131 | $529,683 | -33.2% | -22.1% | 0.77 | 1.00 | S&P 500 |
| 2009→2019 | +20.2% | +18.5% | $630,932 | $544,726 | -33.2% | -22.1% | 0.87 | 1.03 | NQ100 |
| 2010→2020 | +23.5% | +15.2% | $823,555 | $410,904 | -33.2% | -22.1% | 0.96 | 0.87 | NQ100 |
| 2011→2021 | +28.8% | +17.4% | $1,257,460 | $499,596 | -33.2% | -34.1% | 1.03 | 0.96 | NQ100 |
| 2012→2022 | +28.1% | +17.6% | $1,191,305 | $505,673 | -33.2% | -34.1% | 1.01 | 0.98 | NQ100 |
| 2013→2023 | +28.6% | +18.2% | $1,234,743 | $533,380 | -33.2% | -34.1% | 1.02 | 1.01 | NQ100 |
| 2014→2024 | +25.1% | +14.0% | $939,805 | $371,480 | -31.9% | -34.1% | 0.94 | 0.81 | NQ100 |
| 2015→2025 | +33.5% | +13.0% | $1,793,652 | $339,378 | -31.1% | -34.1% | 1.08 | 0.75 | NQ100 |
| 2016→2026 | +42.1% | +17.6% | $3,348,948 | $503,983 | -31.1% | -34.1% | 1.23 | 0.90 | NQ100 |
The NASDAQ 100 strategy with just 2 concentrated positions delivered average CAGR of +26.6% — beating QQQ in 10 of 11 windows. The S&P 500 strategy (quarterly, 9 positions) averaged +16.6% CAGR. The NASDAQ strategy outperformed S&P in 8 of 11 windows, though with slightly higher drawdowns (avg -32.5% vs -29.1%).
The tradeoff is clear: NASDAQ 100 offers higher upside with marginally higher volatility. The S&P 500 strategy is more consistent and less stressful to hold through drawdowns. The right choice depends on risk tolerance.
Key insight: The 2016→2026 window produced an extraordinary $3.35M from $100K (+42.1% CAGR). This captures the NVDA AI supercycle, META recovery, and TSLA run — exactly the kind of concentrated mega-trend the 2-position approach is designed to ride.