Daniel's Breakout Strategy — S&P 500 Sliding 10-Year Window Backtest

Streamlit recommended settings with point-in-time S&P 500 composition (no survivorship bias). Each window runs for exactly 10 years, starting the first trading day (Jan 3) of the given year. Walk-forward, no look-ahead bias. Initial capital $100,000. Highlighted rows = strategy beat SPY.

Universe S&P 500 (~500 stocks)
Exit PCT Trailing Stop 25%
Max Positions 5
Rank By Rel Strength 126d vs SPY
Rebalance Quarterly
C4 Lookback 63d (3 months)
Min Criteria 6/8
Windows 2006–2016 through 2016–2026

At a Glance

Avg CAGR (Strategy)
+11.1%
Avg CAGR (SPY)
+11.9%
Strategy Beat SPY
5 / 11
Avg Max Drawdown
-47.4%
Avg SPY Max DD
-37.4%
Avg Win Rate
52.2%
Avg Sharpe Ratio
0.52
Best Window CAGR
+23.1%

Window-by-Window Results

Window (10 years) Total Return CAGR SPY Return SPY CAGR Alpha Max DD SPY Max DD Final $ Sharpe Win Rate Avg Win Avg Loss Trades
2006-01-03 → 2016-01-03 +9.0% +0.9% +92.9% +7.0% -83.9% -69.8% -55.2% $109,034 0.19 52.0% +19.1% -18.4% 202
2007-01-03 → 2017-01-03 +58.1% +4.7% +96.2% +7.0% -38.1% -69.8% -55.2% $158,129 0.30 52.5% +18.5% -15.4% 202
2008-01-03 → 2018-01-03 +8.2% +0.8% +130.1% +8.7% -121.9% -69.7% -51.9% $108,248 0.17 49.5% +17.4% -14.3% 204
2009-01-03 → 2019-01-03 +99.1% +7.1% +222.6% +12.4% -123.5% -46.9% -27.1% $199,058 0.40 51.0% +17.3% -12.3% 196
2010-01-03 → 2020-01-03 +76.7% +5.9% +247.5% +13.3% -170.8% -46.9% -19.3% $176,646 0.36 51.3% +16.0% -12.0% 195
2011-01-03 → 2021-01-03 +210.8% +12.0% +259.1% +13.7% -48.2% -36.3% -33.7% $310,844 0.58 54.0% +16.6% -11.3% 187
2012-01-03 → 2022-01-03 +386.8% +17.1% +353.8% +16.3% +33.0% -36.3% -33.7% $486,782 0.75 53.3% +19.6% -10.8% 184
2013-01-03 → 2023-01-03 +337.2% +15.9% +214.6% +12.2% +122.6% -36.3% -33.7% $437,189 0.69 52.2% +19.0% -10.5% 186
2014-01-03 → 2024-01-03 +274.3% +14.1% +207.1% +11.9% +67.2% -36.3% -33.7% $374,314 0.63 51.0% +17.9% -10.1% 192
2015-01-03 → 2025-01-03 +527.5% +20.2% +249.3% +13.3% +278.2% -36.3% -33.7% $627,466 0.81 54.2% +19.6% -10.5% 192
2016-01-03 → 2026-01-03 +701.4% +23.1% +301.0% +14.9% +400.4% -36.3% -33.7% $801,393 0.86 53.1% +21.8% -10.9% 196

CAGR by Window

Strategy CAGR per window
2006–2016
+0.9%
2007–2017
+4.7%
2008–2018
+0.8%
2009–2019
+7.1%
2010–2020
+5.9%
2011–2021
+12.0%
2012–2022
+17.1%
2013–2023
+15.9%
2014–2024
+14.1%
2015–2025
+20.2%
2016–2026
+23.1%
SPY CAGR per window
2006–2016
+7.0%
2007–2017
+7.0%
2008–2018
+8.7%
2009–2019
+12.4%
2010–2020
+13.3%
2011–2021
+13.7%
2012–2022
+16.3%
2013–2023
+12.2%
2014–2024
+11.9%
2015–2025
+13.3%
2016–2026
+14.9%

Observations

Best Window

2016-01-03 → 2026-01-03
CAGR: +23.1%

Worst Window

2008-01-03 → 2018-01-03
CAGR: +0.8%

Configuration

Methodology Notes